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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF) - BUY

 

The Vanguard Extended Market ETF provides investors with effective exposure to the investment performance of the S&P Completion index. This index is comprised of various small- and mid-cap US stocks not included in the S&P 500. The ETF is thus considered a strong investment alternative to the large cap dominated major indices.

Stock market breadth in the US has been low (meaning that a small number of stocks are leading market gains) with most gains concentrated among large cap companies. This means that on a comparative basis, smaller companies have underperformed and currently seem to offer better value, fundamentally speaking.

Technically, the ETF price is forming an incomplete symmetrical triangle pattern (see the converging trendlines on the main chart as well as the insert), making it an attractive investment option. This pattern indicates a period of consolidation (and hence lower volatility) which typically occurs just before a breakout to the upside.

Fading downside momentum, according to the MACD indicator, as well as sidewards movement of the OBV indicator, supports a bullish bias.

Share Information

Share code VXF
Industry ETFs
Market Capital (USD) 14.1 billion
One year total return 1.98%
Return year-to-date 5.16%
Current price(USD) 139.26
52 weeek high(USD) 155.91
52 week low(USD) 123.74
Financial year end -
Closing paragraph We expect moderate price volatility going forward.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel of the chart shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish divergence indicator, noted by a reading of 1. This signals a disconnect between the price movement of the ETF and the RSI, which indicates the possibility of consolidation toward the upside.
  • Our entry range for this trade is between $136 and $142 - a drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, providing reason to negate the idea.
  • Our target price is $154 (~10% upside from current levels).
  • Forward calculations of the RSI suggest the stock will be in overbought territory at around $185, characterising our profit target as realistic. A current RSI reading of 51 compared to readings of 30 for oversold territory and 70 for overbought territory, leaves some room for further upside.
  • The proposed time to exit is early-November 2023, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter horizon, depending on price behaviour.
  • A drop below $134 (~4% downside from current levels) is of major concern, and as such is recommended as a stop-loss.
  • We suggest a low at-risk allocation for this trade.

Long-term fundamental view:

  • The ETF consist of over 3 600 different companies, none of which hold a weighting over 1%. Therefore, there is low concentration risk in this instrument.
  • The top five constituents include Uber, Blackstone, Palo Alto, Airbnb and Snowflake.
  • Sectoral exposure includes Information Technology (~18%), Industrials (~17%), Financials (~16%), Health Care (~13%) and Consumer Discretionary (~12%), among others.
  • Apart from a current disconnect in valuation, these small- and mid-cap stocks have higher growth potential compared to large-cap stocks, particularly when market conditions and investor sentiment improves.
  • Investment into the fund enables strategic positions at a more targeted level compared to traditional style-based asset allocation.

Share Name and position DIOD - Take Profit
(Close the position)
STZ - Buy
(Continue to hold)
KO - Buy
(Continue to hold)
REMX - Buy
(Continue to hold)
LIT - Buy
(Continue to hold)
HLMN - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 82.60 228.16 61.85 84.60 62.48 8.01
Current 93.83 232.15 62.80 62.96 85.24 7.99
Movement 13.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% -0.2%
Summary text Exit the trade to reduce overall portfolio exposure. A bullish megaphone pattern remains of interest. The stock is testing its 200-day which overlaps its 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Upside price momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $252 with a trailing stop-loss of $222. Exit the position on 21 June 2023.
The presence of a symmetrical triangle pattern during a prior uptrend remains noteworthy. The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum, however, is a concern to the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $67 with a trailing stop-loss at $60.90. Exit the position on 16 June 2023.
A bullish Elliott wave pattern remains of interest. The stock is trading just below its 200-day simple moving average, though upside momentum is providing support for the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $99 with a trailing stop-loss at $79.60. Exit the position on 21 July 2023.
A falling wedge pattern within a previous uptrend remains intriguing. Although the stock is trading below its 200-day simple moving average, recent upside momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $71 with a trailing stop-loss of $59.60. Exit the position on 30 August 2023.
Price action is exhibiting repetitive cycles in sequences and remains attractive. The stock is testing its 200-day simple moving average. Sudden downside momentum is of concern to the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $10 with a trailing stop-loss at $7.50. Exit the position on 10 October 2023.