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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: Cintas Corp (CTAS US) - BUY

 

By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

We initiate a long position with a target price of $241.00 and a stop-loss of $192.00.

Cintas Corporation designs, manufactures, and provides a comprehensive suite of products and solutions including uniform rentals and facility services as well as work apparel, entrance mats, restroom supplies, promotional products, document management, and first aid and safety services.

Cintas serves a broad range of industries such as hospitality, healthcare, and manufacturing. The company provides products and services to over one million businesses of all types and sizes through ~480 facilities in ~345 cities. Cintas also offers flame-resistant clothing, mats, mops, shop towels, and other ancillary items.

Technically, a bullish pennant pattern presents a promising investment opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights a brief consolidation phase within a prevailing uptrend, often preceding a continuation of the upward move. This pattern typically forms after a strong price rally, where the stock enters a narrow, symmetrical consolidation range resembling a small triangle or pennant. Once the price breaks above the upper boundary of the pennant with increased volumes, it often triggers a fresh leg higher, buoyed by renewed buying interest.

A strong and persistent bullish trend also supports the investment case for the stock (see the notation on the main chart). This trend reflects sustained investor confidence and consistent demand over time, and is characterised by higher highs and higher lows, indicating that buyers are firmly in control. Increasing volumes and supportive technical indicators enhance the credibility of upward momentum while attracting institutional investors and momentum traders.

Fading downside price momentum per the MACD histogram, as well as the upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code CTAS
Industry Commercial & Professional Services
Market Capital (USD) 83.12 billion
One Year Total Return 24.52%
Return Year-to-Date 12.88%
Current Price (USD) 206
52 Week High (USD) 228
52 Week Low (USD) 162
Financial Year End May
The price is hovering around its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), reflecting both short- and long-term strength in the stock.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 3.79 4.38 4.84 5.37
Growth (%) 15.62 10.55 10.89
Dividend Per Share (USD) 1.35 1.54 1.67 2.37
Growth (%) 13.93 8.71 41.45
Forward PE (times) 47.01 42.52 38.35
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 0.75 0.81 1.15
The company is set to see double-digit growth in earnings as well as solid dividend growth in the short to medium term.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows occurrences of the Japanese Morning Star candlestick pattern. A reading of 1 indicates when such a pattern occurred. This pattern is a classic bullish reversal signal that often supports the upside potential of the stock. This three-candle formation begins with a strong bearish candle, followed by a smaller-bodied candle that signals softened selling pressure and is concluded with a robust bullish candle that closes well into the body of the first (see the insert). This reflects a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish and an increase in volumes adds strong credibility to a reversal scenario.
    • Our recommended entry range is $199.00 to $213.00 or as close as possible to $205.84 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $241.00, representing ~17.1% upside from current levels.
    • According to forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index indicator, the stock will be overbought at $320.00, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is end of June 2025, but investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $192.00, or 6.7% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate fluctuations in the future and therefore suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade.

Fundamental view

    • Cintas operates primarily through three segments, namely:
      • Uniform Rental & Facility Services (~80% of revenue) consists of rental and servicing of uniforms and other garments, including flame-resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels, and other ancillary items.
      • First Aid & Safety Services (~10% or revenue) consists of first aid and safety products and services.
      • Other (~10% of revenue) includes the Fire Protection Services segment that helps strengthen customers' fire protection systems, with skilled maintenance, inspection and services.
    • The company's footprint spans across the Americas including 345 cities, operating ~11 700 local delivery routes. CTAS generates more than 90% of its revenue from the US and the rest across Canada and Latin America.
    • CTAS services one million businesses, including small service and manufacturing companies, and major corporations across healthcare, hospitality, retail, government, and the education sector, while employing more than 46 000 people.
    • Recently, Cintas acquired commercial laundry services company, Paris Companies, to enhance its offerings within the services industry. The company also acquired Sitex (a leading provider of uniform and linen services, mats, mops, custom apparel, promotional items, screen-printing, embroidery, first aid, and restroom hygiene services), which is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects.
    • In 3Q25 to the end of February, the company saw revenue increase 8.4% y/y to $2.6 billion, supported by strong growth in uniform rental and facility services. Strategic acquisitions contributed to revenue growth in the quarter while foreign exchange rate fluctuations capped gains. The company also reported an uptick in diluted earnings per share which was $1.13.
    • Management remains focused in maximising shareholder value and has committed to value creation. The company's objective to "to exceed customers' expectations" continues to deliver strong growth for the company. The company will also continue to identify additional product and service opportunities for its current and future customers.
    • For FY25, management expects revenue to range between $10.28 billion and $10.31 billion (+7.2% at the midpoint) and diluted EPS is expected to range between $4.36 and $4.40 (+15.6% at the midpoint).
    • From a risk perspective, the company remains exposed to economic downturns and volatility in foreign currency exchange rates. The company also faces operational and supply chain risks, given the company's dependence on a wide range of suppliers.

Share Name and Position PANW US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
STE US - Time Exit
(Close the position)
Entry 173.55 217.20
Current 173.55 218.78
Movement 0.0% +0.7%
The recent trough in the stock's price continues to attract attention. It remains positioned above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $228.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $152.00. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025.
The trade reached its time exit date and we opted to close the position.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.