By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R287. We recommend a stop-loss at R228.
Mr Price Group and its subsidiaries operate over 2 900 retail stores across southern Africa, focusing on clothing, footwear, accessories, and homeware across the value spectrum. These chains are divided into three operational divisions namely, Apparel (Mr Price, Mr Price Sport, Mr Price Kids, Miladys, Power Fashion and Studio 88), Home (Mr Price Home, Sheet Street, and Yuppiechef), and Telecoms (Cellular).
Technically, a price action in a trough according to the Elliott Wave theory makes for an attractive investment opportunity (see the insert).
The insert illustrates multiple peaks and troughs labelled with the corresponding wave numbers, demonstrating the development of an upward trend. The occurrence of these waves, particularly the initial trough in Wave 1, serves as a sign of potential long-term growth, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the share.
The price action is testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which can be regarded as bullish, especially when it coincides with a significant technical level, such as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
According to forward calculations of the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the stock will be overbought at ~R460. This classifies our profit target of R287 as realistic.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R253.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | MRP |
| Industry | Consumer Discretionary |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 64.94 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 48.44% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -17.50% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 243.59 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 301.54 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 155.04 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The share price has been under pressure year-to-date; however, several technical indicators suggest that a sustained recovery is imminent. Expect moderate volatility in the price. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 12.53 | 14.16 | 16.65 | 18.54 |
| Growth (%) | 13.03 | 17.57 | 11.38 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 8.10 | 9.01 | 10.59 | 11.81 |
| Growth (%) | 11.19 | 17.50 | 11.54 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 17.21 | 14.63 | 13.14 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.70 | 4.35 | 4.85 | |
| Good earnings growth is expected over the forecast horizon. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | VOD - BUY (Continue to hold) |
CML - BUY (Continue to hold) |
LHC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 109.87 | 37.75 | 14.98 |
| Current | 116.95 | 38.45 | 14.77 |
| Movement | +6.4% | +1.9% | -1.4% |
|
The price volume swing remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. However, it seems like the 200-week simple moving average acted as major resistance. Upside price momentum has halted, which is a concern.
Our profit target is R125, with a trailing stop-loss at R110. Exit the trade around 7 April 2025. |
A price at the pivotal point of crossing both the 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages (SMA) remains of interest. Fading downside price momentum supports the idea.
Out take profit target is set at R42 with a trailing stop-loss at R36.75. Time to exit: 19 May 2025. |
A price that is testing its 200-day simple moving average is encouraging. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R17.50, with a trailing stop-loss at R14.00. Exit the trade around 14 July 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | GRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
APN - BUY (Continue to hold) |
TFG - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 171.38 | 142.67 |
| Current | 12.81 | 163.30 | 135.83 |
| Movement | -3.1% | -4.7% | -4.8% |
|
A price trading at one of the highest price bins in its price distribution remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average but seems to be approaching it. Fading downside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is R16, with a trailing stop-loss at R12. Exit the trade around 17 November 2025. |
A price testing major support remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA, and the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Upside price momentum halted, which is a concern.
Our profit target is R196, with a trailing stop-loss at R162. Exit the trade around 26 May 2025. |
A trough in the price action according to the Elliott wave analysis remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Strong downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R167, with a trailing stop-loss at R132.60. Exit the trade around 24 May 2025. |
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