By Peet Serfontein & Jalpa Bhoolia
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R125. We recommend a stop-loss at R103.
Vodacom is a leading African communications group providing converged mobile communications and related services across South Africa, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Lesotho, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Kenya (via Safaricom), and Egypt (via Vodafone Egypt).
Vodacom is the clear market leader in most of the countries in which it operates and remains well-positioned for continued competitiveness. The business is highly cash-generative, which gives it the ability to pay consistent and high dividends.
On a technical basis, the price volume swing analysis for the share predicts that the share currently makes for an attractive investment option (see the insert on the main chart).
The most recent couple of bars highlighted in green on the chart indicate a bullish swing, suggesting upward momentum. Moreover, a decrease in volume on prior bearish swings suggests weakening selling pressure, paving the way for a price move higher.
The price is in the markup phase of the Wykoff Price Cycle (see the insert), which typically shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming a bullish trend.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R113.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | VOD |
| Industry | Telecommunication Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 234.03 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 26.96% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 11.12% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 112.63 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 119.31 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 85.44 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The share recently utilised its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as a major base. Several technical indicators further support a bullish trend. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 8.46 | 8.64 | 10.11 | 11.33 |
| Growth (%) | 6.88 | 15.64 | 14.06 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 5.90 | 6.31 | 7.29 | 8.32 |
| Growth (%) | 6.88 | 15.64 | 14.06 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 13.03 | 11.14 | 9.94 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 5.60 | 6.47 | 7.38 | |
| Healthy double-digit earnings growth is expected over FY26 and FY27. The dividend yield remains attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | APN - BUY (Continue to hold) |
STXIND - BUY (Continue to hold) |
SHP - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 171.38 | 114.97 | 292.78 |
| Current | 178.50 | 119.09 | 285.85 |
| Movement | +4.2% | +3.6% | -2.4% |
|
A price that is testing major support remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average, and the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Upside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is R196.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R169.00. Exit the trade on 26 May 2025. |
A price that is developing a trough according to the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R127.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R111.00. Exit the trade on 16 February 2025. |
A price that appears to be in a phase of low volatility remains of interest. Dipped below its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is at R317.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R268.00. Exit the trade on 1 September 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | NTC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
MGRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 15.49 | 13.22 | |
| Current | 14.19 | 12.07 | |
| Movement | -8.4% | -8.7% | |
|
A bullish swing in the price that reflects improving sentiment remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum continues to be a concern.
Our profit target is R17.40 with a trailing stop-loss at R14. Exit the trade on 24 November 2025. |
A price trading at one of the highest price bins in its price distribution analysis remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is concerning.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R14.00. Exit the trade on 17 November 2025. |
|
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