By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Aspen operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company. The company specialises in producing branded and generic pharmaceuticals, including anaesthetics, anticoagulants, and oncology treatments.
Headquartered in Durban, Aspen services hospital and consumer markets worldwide and is recognised as the largest drug manufacturer in Africa. It has a strong manufacturing footprint in South Africa, with state-of-the-art facilities in Port Elizabeth and other locations.
Technically, a price that is testing a major support makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the black support trendline on the main chart). This signals strong buying interest and market confidence at that price point. Increased volumes would suggest that buyers are stepping in and taking control - further supporting a bullish stance.
The price is in a too steep downtrend and supports a bullish case for the share (see the insert). This indicator can support a bullish case in certain instances as it signals oversold conditions, especially when excessive selling pressure may have driven the price far below its intrinsic or fair value.
If the downward movement approaches key support levels such as Fibonacci retracements, it further solidifies the potential for a rebound.
We suggest a low-to-medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R176.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | APN |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 76.5 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -13.04% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 3.95% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 171.36 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 252.96 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 162.93 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The stock price has declined over the year and selling pressure may be overextended, potentially setting the stage for a reversal and near-term upside. The stock remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 9.91 | 16.77 | 19.62 | 21.79 |
| Growth (%) | 69.12 | 16.99 | 11.09 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 3.42 | 3.66 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Growth (%) | 7.02 | 14.70 | 13.15 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 9.31 | 8.21 | 7.86 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.14 | 2.45 | 2.77 | |
| The company's earnings are expected to grow in the double digits in the short-to-medium term. Dividend growth is expected to be moderate. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | CLS - Stop Loss (Close the position) |
STXIND - BUY Loss (Continue to hold) |
SHP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 388.33 | 114.97 | 292.78 |
| Current | 349.41 | 115.71 | 286.28 |
| Movement | -10.0% | +0.6% | -2.2% |
| The stock reached our stop-loss level, leading to the closure of the position. |
A price that is developing a trough according to the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R127 with a trailing stop-loss at R108. Exit the trade on 16 February 2025. |
A price that appears to be in a phase of low volatility remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is at R317 with a trailing stop-loss at R268. Exit the trade on 1 September 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | NTC - Buy (Continue to hold) |
GRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 15.49 | 13.22 |
| Current | 14.55 | 12.21 |
| Movement | -6.1% | -7.6% |
|
A bullish swing in the price that reflects an improving sentiment remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum continues to be a concern.
Our profit target is R17.40 with a trailing stop-loss at R14. Exit the trade on 24 November 2025. |
A price trading at one of the highest price bins in its price distribution analysis remains of interest. Dropped below its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is concerning.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12. Exit the trade on 17 November 2025. |
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