By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
AbbVie Inc. is a diversified research-based biopharmaceutical company engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, and the commercialisation and sale of medicines and therapies. It offers a comprehensive product portfolio across Immunology, Oncology, Neuroscience, Eye Care, Aesthetics, and Other Specialties.
The company is widely recognised for its flagship drug, Humira, which has been one of the best-selling pharmaceuticals globally. AbbVie continues to expand its portfolio through groundbreaking research and strategic acquisitions.
Technically, per the rank annual returns chart (see insert), the stock exhibits positive returns in most years and capacity for strong price appreciation - a hallmark of long-term bullish momentum. Additionally, losses have tended to be relatively small compared to the gains. This resilience suggests that ABBV is less prone to severe declines, which reinforces its appeal as a strong and relatively stable investment. The stock price remains above key support (see the black trendline).
The stock is trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of ~$178.97. This suggests that the longer-term trend is still positive.
Fading downside momentum, according to the MACD indicator as well as upwards movement of the On-balance Volume indicator, supports a bullish stance. The stock seems to be in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Price Cycle, offering further support for the trade.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | ABBV US |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals/Biotechnology |
| Market Capital (USD) | 323.26 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 32.26% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 22.40% |
| Current Price (USD) | 182.93 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 207.32 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 142.28 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The stock has appreciated firmly over the past year, and various technical indicators suggest further upside. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 11.11 | 10.93 | 12.17 | 13.70 |
| Growth (%) | -1.60 | 11.30 | 12.60 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 5.99 | 6.23 | 6.52 | 6.79 |
| Growth (%) | 4.01 | 4.57 | 4.19 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 16.73 | 15.03 | 13.35 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.41 | 3.56 | 3.71 | |
| Humira's loss of patent in 2023 had added pressure to earnings. However, a strong recovery is expected from FY25 and beyond, driven by demand for immunology products Skyrizi and Rinvoq. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | KMX US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ALGN US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
PG US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 76.44 | 228.21 | 170.76 |
| Current | 84.59 | 229.66 | 179.36 |
| Movement | +10.7 | +0.6% | +5.0% |
|
A developing ascending triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $90.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $79.40. Exit the trade by 31 January 2025. |
A price action in a developing falling wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Muted upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $275.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $200.70. Exit the trade by 21 March 2025. |
An improving technical analysis score remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. The start of upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $185.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $174.00. Exit the trade by 19 February 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | CDE US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
YUM US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BALL US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 6.23 | 133.97 | 61.71 |
| Current | 6.49 | 139.33 | 62.60 |
| Movement | +4.2% | +4.0% | +1.4% |
|
A developing falling wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum has halted, supporting the trade strategy.
Our profit target remains $8.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $5.60. Exit the trade by 10 January 2025. |
A period of low volatility in remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $148.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $134.0. Exit the trade by 29 January 2025. |
A developing broadening bottom pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average but approaching it. Fading downside price momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target remains $69.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $59.60. Exit the trade by 7 February 2025. |
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