By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Coronation Fund Managers is one of southern Africa's most successful third-party fund management companies. It is a pure fund management business that offers both individual and institutional investors access to local and global expertise across all asset classes, including specialist Global Emerging Markets, Africa and Private Equity units. CML's product offerings include unit trusts, institutional mandates, and retirement funds.
The company's philosophy centres around active fund management, aiming to create sustainable value while managing risk effectively. The group is known for its long-term investment strategies and strong track record of delivering competitive returns.
Technically, the price is in a developing triple bottom pattern, which makes the share an attractive opportunity for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern suggests that a potential reversal in the price of a share from a downtrend to an uptrend after testing a support level three times without breaking below it, showing that buyers are willing to defend this level. From a psychological perspective, the triple bottom represents a point where sellers have exhausted their strength and confidence among buyers grows.
The price is in the Markup phase out of the Wyckoff Price Cycle, which supports the bullish stance. This is a critical stage where the price reflects strong bullish sentiment. This phase follows an Accumulation phase, where smart money accumulates assets at lower prices, setting the stage for a price breakout.
According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the stock will be overbought at ~R45, which classifies our profit target of R45 as realistic.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R41.
Share Information
| Share Code | CML |
|---|---|
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 14 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 45.49% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 41.28% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 3 998.00 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 4 078.00 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 2 818.10 |
| Financial Year End | September |
| The stock remains above its 200-day simple day moving average, indicating long-term strength and bullish sentiment. Over the past 12 months and year-to-date the company's share price has achieved double-digit growth. | |
Consensus expectations
(Bloomberg)
| FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | - | - | - | - |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend Per Share (EUR) | - | - | - | - |
| Growth (%) | - | - | - | - |
| Forward PE (times) | - | - | - | - |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | - | - | - | - |
Buy/Sell Rationale
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | ANH - Stop Loss (Close the Position) |
WHL - BUY (Continue to hold) |
TBS - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1 153.11 | 60.82 | 224.91 |
| Current | 1 050.45 | 66.02 | 240.50 |
| Movement | -8.9% | +8.5% | +6.9% |
| The share triggered our stop-loss level, leading to us closing out the position. |
A price building a base remains of interest. Fading upside price momentum is concerning. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
Our profit target is at R71 with a trailing stop-loss at R61.80. Exit the trade on 25 November 2024. |
A price at major resistance remains of interest. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
Our profit target is at R260 with a trailing stop-loss at R215.70. Exit the trade on 28 April 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | QLT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SHP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
INL - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 31.11 | 292.78 | 139.53 |
| Current | 32.86 | 304.19 | 138.27 |
| Movement | +5.6 | +3.9% | -0.9% |
|
The price appears to be developing the 5th wave of the Elliott Wave Price analysis. Subdued downward momentum is supportive. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
Our profit target is at R35 with a trailing stop-loss at R31.35. Exit the trade on 2 December 2024. |
A price that appears to be in a phase of low volatility remains of interest. Downside price momentum has halted and is supportive. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
Our profit target is at R317.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R275.50. Exit the trade on 1 September 2024. |
Historical seasonal strength from October to January remains of interest. Trades above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum supports the trade.
Our take profit target remains at R155 with a trailing stop-loss level at R133. Exit the trade on 20 January 2025. |
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