By Peet Serfontein & Jalpa Bhoolia
Ninety One operates as an asset management company. The company provides portfolio management, investment advisory, and other financial services. Ninety One serves customers worldwide.
The company offers active strategies across equities, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives to institutions, advisors, and individual investors around the world. Ninety One is listed on the Johannesburg and London Stock Exchanges.
Technically, a price that is in a base-forming pattern makes for an appealing investment opportunity (see the notation on the main chart).
The pattern reflects a period of consolidation, whereby the price stabilises after a previous decline or correction. During this phase, selling pressure typically diminishes thus forming a support level - a longer and well-defined base points to stronger support. Increasing demand may lead to upward price pressure, setting the stage for a breakout beyond the upper resistance level of the base.
Seasonal bullish momentum is also notable (see the insert). Increasing returns, particularly in December, suggest that the share price could gain momentum into year end.
According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the stock will be overbought at ~R48, which classifies our profit target of R45 as realistic.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R42.
Expect moderate volatility in the price.
Share Information
| Share Code | N91 |
|---|---|
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 36.82 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 10.10% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -2.44% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 40.52 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 44.42 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 35.87 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| Several technical indicators are supportive of a positive share price move. The share recently crossed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). |
Consensus expectations
(Bloomberg)
| FY23 | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Growth (%) | -0.63 | 3.80 | 8.54 | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Growth (%) | -0.79 | 1.60 | 7.87 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.13 | 10.72 | 9.88 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 7.11 | 7.22 | 7.79 | |
| Some earnings pressure is expected over the near term, after which we expect to see growth pick up. We also regard the 12-month forward dividend yield of over 7% as attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and position | NPN - Take Profit (Close the Position) |
WHL - BUY (Continue to hold) |
OMU - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 3 678.97 | 60.82 | 12.48 |
| Current | 4 174.80 | 67.61 | 13.80 |
| Movement | +13.5% | +11.2% | +10.6% |
| The share progressed quickly to our profit target, and we have closed the position accordingly. |
A price that appears to be building a base remains of interest. Remains just above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R71 with a trailing stop-loss level at R63.40. Exit the trade on 25 November 2024. |
A price building a base remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is encouraging.
Our profit target is R14.40 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.10. Exit the trade on 17 December 2024. |
| Share Name and position | TBS - BUY (Continue to hold) |
ANH - BUY (Continue to hold) |
SHP - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 224.91 | 1 088.49 | 292.78 |
| Current | 239.43 | 1 137.63 | 302.76 |
| Movement | +6.5% | +4.5% | +3.4% |
|
A price at major resistance is of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside price momentum introduces some concern.
Our profit target is at R260, with a trailing stop-loss at R214.50. Exit the trade on 28 April 2025. |
A developing ascending triangle pattern is interesting. Upside price momentum is attractive. Remains just below its 200-day simple moving average.
Our profit target is R1 235 with a trailing stop-loss at R1 079. Exit the trade on 28 October 2024. |
A price that appears to be in a phase of low volatility remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R317 with a trailing stop-loss at R274. Exit the trade on 1 September 2025. |
