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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) - BUY

 

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF provides investors with effective exposure to the investment performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return (TR) Index. This is comprised of several large-and mid-cap stocks operating in various industries including finance, technology, consumer discretionary, and materials, among a few others.

Technically, the ETF price is displaying a pattern of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), suggesting a bullish trend (see the main chart as well as the insert). In essence, the ETF is undergoing a series of price retracements that extend beyond previous highs and don't fall below previous lows.

The ETF is trading just above its 200-day simple moving average of ~$38.50 - this is a positive indicator of the price trend.

Strong upside momentum, according to the MACD indicator, as well as sidewards movement of the OBV indicator, supports our bullish stance.

Share Information

Share code EEM
Industry ETFs
Market capatalisation (USD) 24.96 billion
One year total return -7.56%
Return year-to-date 5.36%
Current price(USD) 39.93
52 weeek high(USD) 44.59
52 week low(USD) 33.49
Financial year end -
Closing paragraph We expect moderate price volatility going forward.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel shows a "Three Outside Up" Japanese Candlestick pattern which depicts a shift in sentiment for the ETF from bearish to bullish.
  • Our entry range for this trade is between $39 and $41 - a drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, providing reason to negate the idea.
  • Our target price is $43 (~8% upside from current levels), at which level profits can be harvested.
  • Forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the stock will be in overbought territory at around $50 - this classifies our price target as realistic.
  • The proposed time to exit is late-August 2023, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter horizon, depending on price behaviour.
  • A drop below $38 (~5% downside from current levels) is of major concern, and as such is recommended as a stop-loss.
  • We suggest a low at-risk allocation for this trade.

Fundamental view:

  • The ETF consists of over 800 different companies, with the top five holdings being Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (~6%), Tencent (~5%), Samsung (~4%), Alibaba (~3%) and Meituan (~2%).
  • Geographic exposure includes Hong Kong, Taiwan & China (~42%), India (~13%), South Korea (~12%) and Brazil (~5%).
  • Developed market equities remain expensive relative to emerging market equities, and asset managers have been more explicit in investing in line with this view.
  • Chinese companies are expected to benefit from the reopening of the Chinese economy following an extended period of lockdowns in response to Covid-19. It also seems as if the regulatory environment in China is improving as companies actively respond to government concerns and the state pursues a pro-growth agenda.
  • The ETF has a sizable weighting to the semiconductor industry - which enjoys significant secular support.
  • Investment into the fund enables strategic positions at a more targeted level compared to traditional style-based asset allocation.
  • The fund places a higher weighting toward a small number of large-cap stocks, which brings about some concentration risk.

Share Name and position BDRY - Profit take
(Close the position)
EXR - Profit take
(Close the position)
AAPL - Profit take
(Close the position)
Entry 9.05 157.83 153.71
Current 9.37 158.79 165.56
Movement 3.5% 0.6% 7.7%
Summary text Upside price momentum has come to a halt.

We suggest taking profits before a further deterioration in technicals.
Upside price momentum has come to a halt.

We suggest taking profits before a further deterioration in technicals.
Profit level is above our 60% hurdle rate.

Exit the trade to reduce overall portfolio exposure.

Share Name and position XLK - Profit take
(Close the position)
CBOE - Buy
(Continue to hold)
MSFT - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 139.66 127.18 276.20
Current 149.48 135.17 289.84
Movement 7.0% 6.3% 4.9%
Summary text Profit level is above our 60% hurdle rate.

Exit the trade to reduce overall portfolio exposure.
The defensive nature of the stock remains of interest. The price remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $144.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $128.70. Exit the position on 2 June 2023.
The stock price recently breached a major resistance level. The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average, but upside momentum has halted - a concern to the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $300.00, with a trailing stop-loss of $271.80. Exit the position around 9 June 2023.