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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - The Coca-Cola Company (KO US, COETNQ, COETNC)

 

Coca-Cola is the largest non-alcoholic beverage manufacturer and one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. The group's portfolio includes several products - with Coca-Cola, Fanta, and Sprite the most notable. In addition to soft drinks, it markets bottled water, fruit juice, sports drinks, as well as ready-to-drink teas and coffees.

The beverage giant continues to dominate the market with its industry leading distribution system that reaches more than 200 countries. This includes both company-owned and independently operated bottling partners, wholesalers, and retailers.

During a previous uptrend, the stock price formed a symmetrical triangle pattern (see the solid black converging trendlines on the main chart as well as the insert), which suggests a consolidation ahead of an imminent move higher.

The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average of ~$60.50 - this is a bullish indicator.

FNB has two ETNs, namely COETNQ (without currency exposure) and COETNC (with currency exposure) that can be used to replicate exposure to KO. These are both listed on the JSE.

Share Information

Share code KO
Industry Food & Beverage
Market capatalisation (USD) 268 billion
One year total return 2.72%
Return year-to-date -2.03%
Current price(USD) 61.85
52 weeek high(USD) 67.20
52 week low(USD) 54.02
Financial year end December
Closing paragraph The share price has come under pressure recently, however several technical indicators point to renewed upside support.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 2.48 2.59 2.79 2.99
Growth (%) 4.60% 7.63% 7.16%
Dividend Per Share (USD) 1.76 1.83 1.91 1.99
Growth (%) 3.98% 4.32% 4.40%
Forward PE (times) 23.84 22.15 20.67
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 2.96 3.09 3.22
Closing paragraph Stable growth seen over the past few years is expected to continue over the medium term.

Buy or Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis :

  • The lower panel of the chart depicts the Doji Morning Star (Japanese candlestick pattern), which typically forms after a downtrend. This is usually followed by a prominent gap that indicates a sudden increase in buying pressure.
  • Upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator supports the bullish trend. A similar confirmation stems from the Coppock Curve.
  • The current upward trend of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator provides further evidence of a bullish market sentiment - the indicator looks at volume flow to predict share price changes.
  • Our entry range for this trade is between $61 and $60 - a drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, providing reason to negate the idea.
  • Our target price is $67 (~8% upside from current levels). Forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the stock will be in overbought territory at around $73 - this classifies our profit target as realistic.
  • The proposed time to exit is mid-June 2023, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter horizon, depending on price behaviour.
  • Our stop-loss level is $60 (~3% downside from current levels).
  • We suggest a low at-risk allocation for this trade.

Long term fundamental view:

  • Coca-Cola generates its revenue across five main operating segments, namely North America (~35%), Europe, Middle East, and Africa (~20%), Asia Pacific (~15%), Latin America (~10%), and Bottling Investments (~20%). The geographic operating segments primarily manufacture and sell beverage concentrates and syrups.
  • The company's strong FY22 performance (Revenue: +11%, Adjusted EPS: +7%) was underpinned by strong organic growth amid a favourable price/mix.
  • Dominance in the market, particularly due to its brand recognition, provided robust support for volumes, which helped offset the impact of lingering cost pressures and adverse currency fluctuations.
  • The group has undergone a significant transformation over the past few years, underpinned by investment into key companies and non-carbonated categories, as well as consolidating bottling assets globally. This will continue to support long-term growth.
  • Downside risks include a highly competitive trading environment, volatile credit conditions in key markets, demand swings caused by macroeconomic uncertainties, as well as a shift in consumer behaviour towards healthier beverages.

Share Name and position BDRY - BUY (Continue to hold) XLK - BUY (Continue to hold) AAPL - BUY (Continue to hold)
Entry 9.05 139.66 153.71
Current 9.65 148.88 162.36
Movement 6.6% 6.6% 5.6%
Summary text The price is currently in an accumulation phase and testing its 200-day simple moving average.

Our profit target remains at $12 with a trailing stop-loss at $8.40. We plan to exit the position on 21 June 2023.
The price is currently testing the upper range of a declining channel pattern. The ETF remains above its 200-day simple moving average.

Our profit target is set at $156 with a trailing stop-loss at $142.20. Exit the position around 24 May 2023.
The stock price is currently retracing from the lower range of its linear regression channel pattern and remains above its 200-day simple moving average.

Our profit target is $170, and our trailing stop-loss is $153.35. Exit the position around 16 June 2023.

Share Name and position ADBE - BUY (Continue to hold) KR - BUY (Continue to hold) CBOE - BUY (Continue to hold)
Entry 373.40 46.91 127.18
Current 381.90 49.06 132.31
Movement 2.3% 4.6% 4.0%
Summary text Stock price symmetry remains attractive, and the counter remains above its 200-day simple moving average.

Our profit target is set at $440 with a trailing stop-loss at $355. Close the position on 28 June 2023.
The price remains above key levels. The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average and is testing its 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Our profit target remains at $52.00, with a trailing stop-loss of $46.75. We plan to exit the position on 7 June 2023.
The defensive nature of the stock remains attractive. Upside momentum continues to support the bullish trend.

The profit target is $144, with a stop-loss of $126. Exit the trade by 2 June 2023.