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Investor Education

Investor Education: The role of central banks

 

The role of central banks

Central banks are the cornerstone of the global financial system, wielding significant influence over a country's economic health. At their core, central banks are quasi-governmental institutions, tasked with the responsibility to manage monetary policy (interest rates and money supply), ensure financial stability, and manage currency matters and foreign reserves.On 16 October, Microsoft and Activision Blizzard announced that the long-awaited takeover of the latter by the former had been completed. The deal was initially announced in January 2022, but the last 20 months has seen the companies caught in regulatory hurdles which delayed the implementation of the takeover.

  • Monetary policy: Central banks do not just react to economic changes; they actively shape economic conditions. By tweaking money supply and interest rates, they can stimulate growth during downturns and cool down overheated economies, often targeting indicators like inflation or employment to optimise national economic performance.
  • Financial system stability: With the vast interconnectedness of today's global economy, the failure of one significant bank can ripple into a systemic crisis. Central banks play the crucial role of supervising commercial banks and bank-like institutions, ensuring their practices neither expose them to undue risk or threaten the broader financial system.
  • Currency issuance: Central banks safeguard the integrity and value of a nation's currency. They possess the sole authority to issue (or withdraw) the national currency, ensuring it remains a reliable medium of exchange.Consensus predicts earnings growth of 13.8% for FY24 (June year-end) and 14.6% for FY25 off revenue growth of 11.6% this financial year and 13.3% the following year.
  • Managing foreign reserves: International commerce requires countries to hold reserves in various currencies. Central banks expertly manage this portfolio, balancing between foreign currencies, gold, and other assets.

A further function of the central banks is to act as “lender of last resort”. When the financial system faces a liquidity crunch, central banks step in. Whether it’s a crisis within a single institution or a systemic meltdown, central banks ensure that liquidity is provided, preventing potential cascading failures, and maintaining public confidence in the financial system.

Monetary policy

Monetary policy is the mechanism through which central banks influence the economy's money supply and interest rates. The core objectives typically include maintaining low and stable inflation, ensuring consistent economic growth, and keeping the nation's currency stable in the foreign exchange markets. Central banks deploy several tools to achieve this:

  • Interest rates: By dictating the rate at which they lend to commercial banks, central banks indirectly influence interest rates across the economy. Lower rates often spur borrowing and investment, while higher rates can dampen excessive economic heat and bring inflation in check.
  • Open market operations: The purchase or sale of government securities allows central banks to control the money circulating within the banking system. Buying securities pumps money into the system, while selling has the opposite effect.
  • Reserve requirements: By stipulating the minimum reserves commercial banks must hold, central banks control the lending capabilities of these institutions. A high reserve requirement can curtail lending, while a low requirement can encourage it.

Price stability is arguably the most important function of a central bank:

  • It preserves purchasing power: Excessive inflation erodes the value of money. As prices surge, the same amount of money fetches fewer goods and services, effectively diminishing living standards and real income.
  • It helps give reliable price signals: Disproportionate inflation rates can distort relative prices, leading to misinformed decisions by consumers and producers. This can result in resource misallocation, hindering optimal economic performance.
  • It provides certainty and growth: An unpredictable inflation trajectory introduces uncertainty, making it challenging for individuals and businesses to plan. This uncertainty can stymie long-term investments, curbing innovation and growth.

Legislation and independence

The effectiveness of a central bank often hinges on its independence. Shielded by carefully crafted legislation, central banks can take long-term actions that, while economically sound, might be politically unpopular. This legislative framework is pivotal in ensuring that a country's economic health is not compromised by short-term political considerations.

Central banks can make mistakes

Central banking, despite its data-driven approach, is not immune to misjudgements. A misstep can inadvertently exacerbate economic problems. The fact that its decisions are very much a function of data - makes it susceptible to reacting to data that is flawed or lagging, leading to sub-optimal policy choices. Finally, there is a fine line between prudent oversight and stifling overregulation. Overzealous central banking can hinder financial innovation and growth.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)

As South Africa's central banking institution, the SARB has, since 1921, been an anchor of stability in an often turbulent local and global economy. The South African Reserve Bank Act of 1989 ensures it operates autonomously, driven by economic imperatives rather than political winds.

  • Monetary policy: Through its mandate, the SARB seeks to maintain inflation within a 3% to 6% range. Its primary tool? The repo rate, which indirectly influences interest rates throughout the economy, thus steering economic activity.
  • Financial stability: In a world of intertwined financial destinies, the SARB stands as a guardian, ensuring South Africa's banking system remains resilient against both domestic and global shocks.
  • Currency management: The rand is under the careful stewardship of the SARB. Beyond issuance, the bank plays a pivotal role in preserving its value and integrity on the global stage.

The SARB has, through its steadfast approach, navigated South Africa safely through a multitude of international challenges. More recently, it has helped steer the economy through the ripples of the Global Financial Crisis and the unprecedented disruptions caused by Covid-19, consistently demonstrating resilience, adaptability, and foresight. Its monetary policies and strategic interventions have not only mitigated potential economic downturns but have also reinforced South Africa's reputation in international financial circles.

However, every institution, no matter how formidable, faces its share of criticism. A recurrent critique of the SARB revolves around its pronounced emphasis on inflation targeting. Detractors argue that while maintaining stable inflation is crucial, an overemphasis can potentially overshadow other equally important economic objectives. Some economic thinkers and policymakers suggest that the SARB could benefit from a more diversified mandate, one that holistically integrates goals like robust economic growth and enhanced employment opportunities. By broadening its focus, they contend, the SARB might be better positioned to address the multifaceted challenges that South Africa faces, fostering a more inclusive and dynamic economic environment.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.