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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - PepsiCo Inc. (PEP US) - BUY

 

PepsiCo Inc. operates worldwide beverage, snack, and food businesses. Through operations, authorised bottlers, contract manufacturers and other third parties, the group serves customers and consumers in more than 200 countries.

The company's beverage brands include Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, and Aquafina water. The company also owns Frito-Lay, with offerings such as Lay's, Ruffles, Doritos, and Cheetos. The Quaker Foods unit makes, markets, distributes, and sells cereals, rice, pasta, and other branded products.

Technically, a stable bullish trend makes the share attractive as an investing option (see the insert on the main chart). Such a trend is often considered to be a positive sign for investors, as it suggests that there is a high level of demand for the stock and that investors are optimistic about the company's prospects.

A stable bullish trend gives rise to a bullish market structure, which is defined by a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The trend continues in the same direction until the stock price records a lower low (LL).

According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the stock is in overbought territory at ~$220. This makes our profit target of $200 realistic.

We suggest a low at-risk allocation for this trade.

Share Information

Share code PEP
Industry Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Market capatalisation (USD) 245.16 billion
One year total return 11.20%
Return year-to-date -0.81%
Current price(USD) 178.01
52 weeek high(USD) 186.84
52 week low(USD) 154.86
Financial year end December
Closing paragraph The current share price makes for an attractive entry point. The share is trading at a beta of 0.68, indicating that the share is less volatile than the overall market.

Consensus expectations

(Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 6.79 7.24 7.87 8.47
Growth (%) - 6.57 8.79 7.57
Dividend Per Share (USD) 4.53 4.92 5.28 5.65
Growth (%) - 8.64 7.41 6.91
Forward PE (times) - 24.60 22.61 21.02
Forward Dividend Yield (%) - 2.76 2.97 3.17
Closing paragraph Medium-term growth prospects remain solid. The dividend yield is attractive. Even though moderate fluctuation in the share price is expected, several technical indicators are guiding for the upside price potential.

Buy or Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis :

  • Upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator supports the bullish trend.
  • A similar confirmation is made from the Coppock Curve. A trough in the Coppock Curve indicates that momentum has shifted from negative to positive and that a potential buying opportunity may exist.
  • The recent sidewards trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator signals that buying and selling pressure on the stock are roughly equal and that the volume of the stock being traded is relatively stable.
  • The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) which is around $171. This is another bullish indicator for the stock.
  • The RSI is in oversold territory when the reading is below 30 and overbought when it is above 70. The current reading of the RSI is at 56, leaving some upside price potential.
  • Our entry range is between $175 and $180. Our upside target is set at $200 (~12.4% upside potential).
  • Time to exit is mid-May 2023. Keep the option open to extend or shorten the exit time of the trade idea depending on price behaviour.
  • A price below $170 (~4.5% downside potential) remains a major concern for downside potential and is recommended as a stop-loss.

Long term fundamental view:

  • PepsiCo boasts a diverse product portfolio of well-recognised food and beverage products. The economic climate in key global markets remains favourable to consumer demand for the group.
  • Recent results for the 4Q22 pointed to a strong finish to the year with all key metrics surpassing market expectations, yet again. Core constant currency earnings per share (EPS) rose 9.2% y/y to $1.67 (Bloomberg consensus: +7.4%). Revenue was up 10.9% y/y to $28 billion (Bloomberg consensus: +6.5%)
  • The top-line performance was underpinned by strong organic growth across all segments and geographies, and this filtered through nicely to the bottom-line as higher raw material costs and other operating expenses were countered by effective net pricing and productivity savings. Effective cost control measures and strong market share gains will be supportive of growth going forward.
  • The outlook was optimistic, with management's guidance for the bottom-line having been slightly ahead of market expectations at the time. The commitment to dividend increases and share repurchases reiterated managements confidence to sustain growth, notwithstanding high inflationary pressures.
  • Risks to our fundamental view include macroeconomic volatility, increased competition, commodity and foreign exchange volatility, consumer pressure as well as the shift in consumer behaviour towards healthier beverages. Potential declines in beverage market share and soda taxes are further downside risks to long-term performance.

Share Name and position TAP - Stop loss
(Close the position)
LHX - Stop loss
(Close the position)
F - Stop loss
(Close the position)
Entry 53.65 212.87 12.74
Current 49.91 195.25 11.30
Movement -7% -8.3% -11.3%
Summary text After the share reached our stop-loss level, we closed the position. Downside price momentum is a concern. After the share reached our stop-loss level, we closed the position. The share remains close to oversold territory. After the share reached our stop-loss level, we closed the position. The share recently fell below its 200-day simple moving average.

Share Name and position AAPL - BUY
(Continue to hold)
XLF - BUY
(Continue to hold)
BDRY - BUY
(Continue to hold)
Entry 153.71 139.66 9.05
Current 159.28 144.69 9.31
Movement 3.6% 3.6% 2.9%
Summary text We are monitoring the price, which is currently retracing from the lower range of a linear regression channel pattern. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.

Our take profit target is set at $170, with a trailing stop-loss at $150.50. We plan to exit the position around 16 June 2023.
The price is currently testing the upper range of a declining channel pattern. The stock is testing its 200-day simple moving average.

Our take profit target is set at $156 with a trailing stop-loss at $138. Exit the position around 24 May 2023.
The price is currently in an accumulation phase and tested its 200-day simple moving average.

Our take profit target remains at $12 with a trailing stop-loss at $8.10. We plan to exit the position on 21 June 2023.