By Koketso Mano
Employment in the formal non-agricultural sectors of the economy, as reflected in the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), increased by over 12 000 jobs, or 0.1% q/q in 4Q24. Most of the jobs created were in trade, while the community services sector continued to shed jobs. Compared to 4Q23, over 90 000 jobs (0.8%) have been lost but over 330 000 jobs have been added since 4Q19. There were 10.6 million workers in the formal economy in 4Q24.
Job gains were recorded in trade (42 000 or 1.8% q/q), followed by business services (22 000 or 0.9%), transport (2 000 or 0.4%), and electricity (1 000 or 1.6%). Meanwhile, losses were recorded in community services (-26 000 or -0.9%), construction (-13 000 or -2.1%), manufacturing (-13 000 or -1.0%), and mining (-3 000 or -0.6%).
Full-time jobs increased by 10 000 q/q but were 26 000 lower than a year ago. Most of the jobs added in business services and trade, as well as those lost in construction and manufacturing, were full-time jobs. Part-time employment increased by 2 000 jobs q/q but were down by 65 000 jobs compared to 4Q23. While trade added part-time jobs between 3Q24 and 4Q24, most of the jobs lost in community services were on a part-time basis. There were under 1.2 million part-time workers and under 9.5 million full-time workers in 4Q24.
Total gross earnings increased by 6.1% q/q and 3.6% y/y. Notably, earnings were 30.0% higher than 4Q19 levels, beating inflation of 26.9%. Basic salary/wage payments were higher by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, and 4.0% higher than 4Q23. Average monthly earnings (including overtime and bonuses) were down by 0.2% q/q but 5.3% higher than a year ago.
Outlook
We still anticipate that growth could approach 2% over the next couple of years, highlighting gradual improvements in the operating environment. The emphasis on infrastructure and service delivery improvements in the budget is encouraging, but implementation risks must be reduced. Therefore, it is imperative that progress in improving the viability of private sector participation in public infrastructure investments continues to gain traction. This would not only support cyclical growth, but embed higher longer-term growth by raising productivity, encouraging capacity investment, and employment creation. Furthermore, structurally lower operating costs, as service delivery improves, will be key to improving profitability, lowering broader inflation, and lifting real incomes.
We maintain that there could be near-term gains from infrastructure maintenance and investment to sectors such as construction, but crime-related impediments will also need to be addressed. Meanwhile, improving domestic demand should support sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and finance. However, significant employment gains should be more evident over the longer term.
