By Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) contracted by 0.9% y/y in November 2024, after expanding by a downwardly revised 1.1% (previously 1.4%) in October (Figure 1). Excluding gold, mining output expanded by 0.7% y/y over the same period. Monthly seasonally adjusted output, which is critical for quarterly GDP calculations, declined by 0.2% after contracting by 2.8% (previously -3.0%) in October (Figure 2). In the three months to November, mining output was up by 4.0% - suggesting a potential boost to 4Q24 GDP growth, pending the December data print.
Outlook
Mining output increased by close to 1% between January and November last year, reflecting a better performance compared to 0% growth in 2023. However, last year's performance has been mixed, with mining divisions such as platinum group metals (PGMs), chromium ore, coal and manganese ore supporting growth (Figure 4). Meanwhile, gold, other metallic minerals and iron ore have been a drag
We expect the continued suspension of load-shedding and gradually stabilising logistic systems to support production over the near-to-medium term. However, slowing growth in China, a generally subdued external demand environment, and weak prices for South Africa's major commodity exports could limit the upside
Selected sector analysis
The weakness in November's mining output was broad-based with nine out of 12 divisions experiencing declines (Figure 3). Amongst the major divisions:
On the upside:
