By Thanda Sithole
Mining production, not seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.3% y/y in August, following a revised 1.0% y/y contraction in July (previously -1.4% y/y). The outturn exceeded Reuters' consensus, which had anticipated a 2.1% y/y contraction. Excluding gold, output rose by 1.1% y/y. On a seasonally adjusted basis, mining output surged by 2.9% m/m, more than offsetting the 0.8% decline in July. However, output was still down by 1.4% over the three months ending in August, signalling that without sustained monthly growth, the mining sector could potentially weigh on GDP in 3Q24.
Outlook
Year-to-date, mining output is up 0.3%, outperforming the declines of 0.2% in 2023 and 7.2% in 2022. Although energy constraints have eased, helping to support recovery, mining activity is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to a stable yet challenging external demand environment. Ongoing inefficiencies in port and rail infrastructure continue to limit productivity and profitability across the sector.
Selected sector analysis
The modest 0.3% y/y increase in August reflected gains in five of the twelve mining divisions. A closer look at the top five divisions, which together represent over 85% of total output, reveals:
On the downside:
