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Flash Notes

Mining output weakens further into 3Q24

 

By Thanda Sithole

Mining production, not seasonally adjusted, unexpectedly contracted by 1.4% y/y in July, following a 3.6% y/y decline in June. This outturn fell short of the Reuters consensus of a 1.3% increase. Seasonally adjusted mining output also fell by 0.9% m/m, compared to a 1.7% decline in June, signalling sustained weakness into 3Q24. Year-to-date (January to July), mining output is up marginally by 0.2%, compared to a 1.7% decline over the same period last year. Excluding gold, output has risen by 1.4% so far this year.

Outlook

Despite easing energy constraints and a stable global growth environment, recovery in mining activity is expected to remain moderate in the near term. The ongoing inefficiencies in the port and rail industries continue to hinder productivity and profitability.

Selected sector analysis

The sustained weakness into 3Q24 reflected declines in seven out of twelve mining divisions. Zoning into the five major divisions, which account for over 85% of total output:

  • Iron ore increased by 9.5% y/y after declining by 6.3% in June, largely supported by increased output in dairy products, other food products and beverages.
  • Gold increased by 5.2% y/y, after declining by 9.1% in June. Activity was primarily underpinned by increased output of basic iron and steel products as well as non-ferrous metal products.
  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) increased marginally by 0.7% following a 0.8% increase in June.
  • Petroleum, chemical products, rubber, and plastic products also increased marginally by 0.1%, reflecting a moderation from 1.0% growth in June. Basic chemicals increased by 10.4% and plastic products by 5.3%, but that was counteracted by the 7.2% decline in petroleum products and nuclear fuel and a 2.1% decline in rubber products.

On the positive side, manganese ore output surged by 27.0% y/y, following a 5.2% increase in June, while coal production increased by 0.3% after a 3.6% decline in the previous month, mitigating the broader decline in output.