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Equity Insights

Boxer: Punching above its weight -updated

 

by Jalpa Bhoolia

Listing on the JSE in November

Ticket BOXER
Offer size R8.5 billion
Price range R42 to R54
FNB expression of interest period opens Wednesday, 30 October 2024
Pre-listing statement published/bookbuild period opens Monday, 11 November 2024
Applications close (FNB internal deadline) Thursday, 21 November 2024
Pricing and allocations announced Monday, 25 November 2024
Listing date Thursday, 28 November 2024
Minimum Application R10 000 and in increments of
R1 000 thereafter

Boxer was founded in 1977 in KwaZulu-Natal's Empangeni community. The brand has since grown far and wide and includes well-defined retail offerings that boasts stores in every province of South Africa, as well as in the Kingdom of Eswatini.

Retail giant, Pick n Pay, acquired Boxer in 2002 to best serve the consumer marketplace that Boxer dominates in. Through Boxer's impressive growth over the decades, it now boasts an array of formats, ranging from full-service discount supermarkets, to an "everything under one roof" builders hardware offering, and liquor stores.

Earlier this year, parent company, Pick n Pay, announced that it will list Boxer separately on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) with a secondary listing on the A2X. The significant development follows on from Pick n Pay's recapitalisation plan to stabilise its balance sheet and restore investor confidence. The new era sets Boxer up to spread its wings and forge its own path.

As of August 2024, Boxer had 300 Superstores, 159 Boxer Liquors and 30 Boxer Build stores across South Africa and Eswatini, with a total of 489 stores.

Boxer Superstores

Boxer Superstores is a discount supermarket providing a range of products that shoppers need in their day-to-day lives from a variety of low-priced products - including popular brands - through to convenient services. It boasts in-store departments which include a full-service bakery, butchery, hot foods delicatessen, a fruit & vegetable zone and the ever-popular Money Kiosk counter.

Boxer Liquors

Boxer Liquor Stores are located alongside existing Boxer Superstores, making it easier to shop for all grocery needs in one convenient location. Liquor Stores stock a range of alcoholic beverages and products including beer, malt, cider, cordials, spirits, cigarettes, tobacco, ice, and snacks.

Boxer Build

Boxer Build stores stock a wide range of competitively priced hardware and building materials for the DIY market, the home builder and the commercial builder. In addition to products, it offers support from staff who are trained to provide building advice and support to the commercial and private builder and renovator. The group also offers a Boxer Cash Club Savings and credit facility for shoppers where they can deposit monthly amounts accumulating a total which will ultimately be used for their building requirements.

Management

Boxer is headed by Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Marek Masojada, who has been with the group for 31 years. He joined Boxer when it was a five-store regional business and is currently tenured in his sixth year as CEO. He previously served 25 years as CFO, with deep involvement in Strategy, Finance, IT, Property and Expansion, Value Added Services and Legal.

David Wayne is the Chief Financial Officer (CFO), also currently tenured in his sixth year as CFO. He joined when Boxer had 68 Stores, following roles in auditing at Ernst & Young. In the previous 11 years of his career, he has held the role of Group Financial Manager and Systems Accountant.

Sector considerations and competitive landscape

A report by 6Wresearch suggests that the South African Food and Grocery Retail Market size is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% during the forecast period 2024 to 2030.

According to the Futureworld South African Discount Retail research report obtained by the group, Boxer is a dominant market player in the discount grocery market (68.2% market share) and holds a 4.2% market share in the total formal grocery market. Boxer strives to compete within the existing formal market through conversion and collaboration with the informal market.

The group is ambitious and has a solid pipeline in place to drive momentum. According to the recent overview pack released by Boxer, it plans to open 25 to 35 Boxer Superstores and 35 to 40 Boxer Liquors annually, and to double its store footprint in the next six to seven years.

In the presentation, the company notes that South Africa is still underpenetrated in discount grocery relative to other markets - providing ample room for growth, supported by higher absolute grant payments and population growth.

While population growth (particularly the middle class), private label expansion and technological advancements are supportive of upside potential, the local grocery retail market is not short of challenges. Economic instability, strained consumer disposable income, supply-chain interruptions and regulatory controls can serve as major detractors.

Financials and Forecasts

  • Boxer reported a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for turnover of 18.6% (like-for-like: 7.7%). Turnover growth has been consistent over the last three-years with very attractive double-digit gross margins - management will continue to reinvest efficiency gains in gross margin to drive turnover.
  • We forecast revenue growth in the high teens, low twenties over the forecast horizon, driven by like for like growth of ~7.5% (supported by inflation and GDP growth) and a store roll-out rate of ~10%.
  • We anticipate an investment in price, per management guidance and therefore see some pressure on the gross margin over the medium term, but for the metric to remain very healthy.

  • The adjusted EBITDA CAGR was 23.4% in the three years through FY24. Trading profit CAGR over the same period was 23.3% at an average margin of 5.5%. The stable adjusted EBITDA margin underpins the group's smooth cash flow generation profile.
  • Per guidance, we expect the trading margin to fall to 5% in FY25, but then to steadily expand due to high revenue growth an operating leverage.

  • To date, the business has been self-funded through strong cash generation and conversion, with a three-year return on invested capital (ROIC) of 27%.
  • Over FY25, a trading margin of ~5% is anticipated, with capital expenditure being~2.5% of turnover.
  • The business is targeting net leverage of ~0.2 times for FY25 based on expected gross drawn debt of ~R850 million pre-IPO and a total pre-IPO payment to Pick 'n Pay of R2.75 billion.
  • Boxer plans to pay dividends at a payout ratio of 40% from FY26.

Investment case summary

  • Boxer is a well-known soft discount retailer with a footprint spanning across key geographies, giving it a competitive edge in specific markets, particularly on the lower end.
  • The business will benefit from expected continued growth in the formal retail market and further anticipated growth within this space for the discount retail market.

  • Growth medium term will be helped by population growth, wage/grant growth, private label expansion (which is also supportive of gross margins) and technological advancements.
  • An enhanced product offering and tailoring it to meet the needs of the customer base should help protect and gain market share. The business offers a smaller range of products (SKUs) and this is supportive of a more efficient supply chain.
  • The separate listing of Boxer will ensure that it carves out its own path and growth is no longer bogged down by Pick n Pay woes.
  • Boxer's rewards programme fosters a sense of loyalty, which could support consumer retention rates.
  • The operating model boasts attractive return on investments with less than three-year payback periods and a 27% return on invested capital (ROIC). Cash generation is strong (underlying adjusted cash conversion: 60.3%) and together with a healthy ROIC, could translate to a higher valuation rating than peers.

Risks

  • Formidable competition in the food retailer space from the likes of Shoprite, Checkers, Usave, Independents, and Spar etc. could translate to thin margins.
  • The aggressive store-roll out plans may not materialise or could result in cannibalisation in its existing store base.
  • Relatively limited product offering compared to competitors (outside the discount space) could impact the consumer base and in turn, market share.
  • Boxer may miss out on the online shopping platform wave - for now it offers online bulk buying with airtime and data, flight and bus tickets, lotto and Powerball, and electricity coming soon to the virtual platform. Checkers is doing quite well in penetrating the grocery delivery market with its Sixty60 offering - and the group recently rolled out a business to business offering specifically aimed at the informal retail market - an important segment of Boxer's client base.
  • The Pick n Pay brand umbrella warranted certain reputational advantages; however, this may be diluted once Boxer operates independently.
  • Boxer's geographical presence may make it relatively more susceptible to the impact of economic instability such as strikes.
  • The total pre-IPO payment to Pick n Pay of R2.75 billion will push leverage higher, although we do expect the business to pay down debt quite quickly and return to a broadly unlevered balance sheet as has been the case in the past.

Valuation - a knockout deal?

  • Boxer certainly carries attractive potential, with the group already holding an upper hand in terms of market share and the growth trajectory looking promising.
  • Boxer will offer R8.5 billion in shares to the public via a private placement. The offer price range is R42 to R54, translating to a value of between R20.7 billion and R26.6 billion.
  • We employ a range of valuation techniques and have settled on a conservative fair value of R52 per share - towards the upper end of the offer range. This translates to a forward PE of 14.5 times on our estimates. As noted above, we think the company can support a premium rating and this could see the company trading closer to the upper end of our valuation range (being about R60) post-listing.
  • We are comfortable applying at market.

How to apply

The Boxer private placement is not open yet, but FNB will be accepting binding expressions of interest prior to and throughout the offer period.

Please note that the minimum application amount is R10 000 in increments of R1 000 thereafter.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (SPM) - Log onto the FNB SPM website ( shares.fnb.co.za). Navigate to My Portfolio>Corporate Actions.

FNB Share Investing (SI) - Send an email to shareinvesting@fnb.co.za. Please indicate your account number and the rand amount you would like to invest. Please be advised this is only available as a Share Investor product.

Please ensure funds are available. If your account is not funded the application will be cancelled.

Please note that we expect the offer to be oversubscribed. This means that you may not receive the full number of shares you have applied for. Allocations will be made on a proportional basis. You will only pay for the shares you receive.

If you do not have a Local Trader or Share Investor account, you can open an account on the FNB App or via FNB Online Banking:

FNB App: Navigate to 'Invest' tab > Select 'Share Portfolio' > Select 'Add'/'Open a Share Portfolio account' > Select 'Invest in Shares & Gold' > Select 'Share Investor' or 'Local Trader' > Select 'Apply now' > Complete the steps and accept the Ts and Cs.

FNB Online Banking: Click 'Menu' > Click 'Invest tab' > Click 'Investment Detail' > Click 'Open a Share Portfolio Account' > Click on 'Share Investor' or 'Local Trader' tab and complete the account opening process.

Please note: For the Local Trader option on Online Banking, you will be redirected to the the FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management website to complete your Local Trader application. You will be logged out of FNB Online Banking and logged into FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management website. Click 'yes' to continue to complete the application process.