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Financial planning

Overview
 

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Equity Insights

Rathbones - Building scale

 

Sithembile Bopela

Rathbones - Building scale

Rathbones plc is a provider of personalised investment and wealth management services that includes financial planning, legal advisory, tax management, pension funds, and banking and trust services. The company services private clients, charities, trustees, and professional partners, primarily in the United Kingdom (UK), where most of its sales are generated (>95% of sales), and Jersey. Rathbones holds a market share of ~5% of the UK's wealth sector, which is estimated to reach ~£2.1 trillion by the end of 2024.

The company has two main operating divisions: Wealth Management (~85% of sales), which encompasses Investment Management (IM) and Financial Planning and Advice (FPA), and Asset Management or Funds (~15%). FPA services are facilitated through in-house planners as well as Vision IFP's independent advisor network in the UK. The Funds segment includes Rathbone Asset Management, a UK active fund manager, providing a range of specialist and multi-asset funds sold through intermediaries to the retail sector. These funds are distributed primarily through financial advisers in the UK.

The majority of the group's revenue base is generated by wealth and asset management fees (~73% of total operating income).

The majority of the group's revenue base is generated by wealth and asset management fees (~73% of total operating income).

Financial planning advisory fees also contribute to income, and even more progressively, as the group focuses on expanding its advisor base. This, together with the group's banking licence, provides diversification of its income streams. Overall, revenue margins have remained robust despite macro headwinds, underpinned by strategic acquisitions and the group's high level of service.

Mergers and acquisitions

The group has completed several key acquisitions over the past three years including that of advice-led wealth management business, Saunderson House, for €150 million in 2021. Saunderson House focuses on professional services for clients in London and Southeast Asia. This deal was an important step towards bolstering Rathbones' financial planning capability - increasing the number of in-house financial planners from 25 to 80, while contributing ~€4.6 billion to funds under management and administration (FUMA [FY21]).

In 2023, the group completed its merger with Investec Wealth & Investment UK (IW&I) under the Rathbones brand in an all-equity transaction valued at ~£19 billion. This was a transformational deal which served to create a wealth manager with about £100 billion FUMA, with IW&I adding ~40% to group FUMA (FY23).

Additionally, the deal with IW&I will deliver ~£60 million in annual cost and income synergies. Management anticipates the transaction will be earnings accretive within the first year, and >90% of the synergy gains are expected to be realised by FY26, with low-teens underlying EPS accretion targeted in the same year. Following the combination, Investec now holds an economic interest of 41.25% of Rathbones.

The transaction underscores the prevailing trend of consolidation across the industry, as changing consumer dynamics, competitive and regulatory pressures, as well as rising technology and operational costs continue to spur firms to merge. In this light, the rationale for the Rathbones/IW&I combination makes sense - to increase scale. However, particularly with the Saunderson integration still in play three years later, it does bring integration risk and forecast risk, at least in the near term as the two groups consolidate.

Management remains confident that the integration of IW&I into the larger entity remains on track.

Latest financial performance

Recent results for the first quarter showed a positive start to the year, with strong income growth mainly driven by the contribution from the recently consolidated IW&I business.

  • Net operating income increased to £223.6 million, up 90% y/y or 13.6% y/y when excluding the contribution of £89.8 million from IW&I (Bloomberg 1H24: £443 million).
  • On a comparable basis, Investment Management grew 12.2% y/y on higher fees (+6.3%) and commissions (+15.2%), stronger net interest income (NII) (+64%) and advisory services (+5.4%). Asset Management advanced 22.5% y/y.
  • Total FUMA increased by 2.1% q/q to £107.6 billion (4Q23: £105.3 billion).
  • Leadership expects to report an underlying operating margin of mid-20% for FY24 (FY23: 22.3%) with underlying costs in line with the prior year.

Overall, the group's performance was robust, with positive fee income the biggest driver of revenue, as well as higher commission and advisory income also adding strongly to the results.

Positive discretionary and managed FUM (Rathbones) were offset by continued net outflows from IW&I. The elevated outflows remain a sector-wide experience, largely ensuing from prevailing pressure on consumers due to the cost-of-living crisis in the UK.

While the margin guidance was in line with consensus expectations (Bloomberg: 25.1%), it does represent a downward revision of management's previous target (previously high-20%). This was due to further business investments as well as slower synergy realisation from the Saunderson acquisition, with the integration process taking longer than planned (as highlighted above).

What we like about this company

  • Rathbones is a well-established investment manager that has built a trusted brand over time.
  • The enlarged business (and client base) with vertically integrated proprietary knowledge and technologies to build an improved client proposition will further enable its scale, which is, critical to surviving the changing UK wealth management environment.
  • There is a structural growth underpin for the industry. Increasing life expectancies, rising taxes, inflation, and the Great Wealth Transfer - the intergenerational transfer of assets from aging parents to their heirs, have created a greater need for wealth management and investment advice.
  • It has a strong focus on growing the financial planning arm of the business through targeted acquisitions, including Saunderson, Speirs & Jeffries (Scotland) and IW&I. While this presents short-term cost pressures, its bolsters the group's longer-term prospects, particularly amid growing scarcity of advice across the market.
  • Diverse revenue streams. Rathbones also offers clients a range of banking services as a licensed deposit taker, with additional services offered though its relationship with Investec.
  • Geared to a recovery in markets. An improvement in the macroeconomic outlook could spur market confidence and in turn, more client investment activity.
  • Digital investment programme. The group remains focused on adapting its operating model to the changing world, such that the group's digital presence complements its face-to-face approach.
  • In terms of financial performance, the group has maintained a stable revenue margin despite prevailing macro headwinds, as well as a robust fee income stream and good cost control.
  • Client satisfaction. Rathbones (43% ex-IW&I) has an above-sector average (34%) NPS score, which is an important gauge for client loyalty and satisfaction. This score correlates with the company's client retention, referrals, and improvements, and can provide a competitive advantage.

What we don't like about this company

  • Exposure to the economic cycle. As such, the performance of capital markets remains a key downside/upside risk to the company's performance given its significant market gearing.
  • Net flows into the wealth management platform have been dampened by general macroeconomic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and the generally higher cost of living.
  • While management reiterated its existing synergy targets that will support earnings, outflows are expected to persist at least over the short term and may place pressure on the top line.
  • Execution risk for the integration of IW&I. The trajectory of net out flows for the segment could accelerate beyond acceptable levels, limiting the group's ability to extract value from the deal.
  • Recent results came in ahead of consensus expectations, however, management's downwardly revised guidance on operating margins and flows from IW&I tempered investor optimism.
  • Competitive pressure across the asset management industry remains fierce.
  • Fee compression: This is a sector-wide impact due to continued competitive pressure as well as an ongoing push for greater transparency and comparability from investors, and scrutiny from policymakers and regulators.
  • Other downside risks include slower organic growth and lower net flows relative to peers as well as the impact of the UK consumer duty rules which remains uncertain and poses an earnings risk across much of the UK financial sector as it pertains to the prevailing advice gap.

Valuation

  • Analysts remain positive on the stock, with a 44% "Buy" rating and a 44% "Hold" rating. Based on the current consensus target price, the stock presents 16% upside from current levels.

  • Rathbones is trading on a forward PE of 10.5 times, which remains undemanding relative to its history (13 times). The stock is priced at 1.8% of FUMA, which appears attractive.
  • We view the integration with IW&I as positive for both entities. While near-term risks prevail, we are positive on the company from a longer-term perspective, particularly when industry outflows stabilise.