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Economics
commentary

Economics Weekly 22 March 2024


The March 2024 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, 27 March. While we expect interest rates to remain unchanged, the messaging at that meeting remains key as many spectators of monetary policy around the globe seek indications of when interest rate cuts may be implemented.


 

Economics Weekly 15 March 2024


The FNB/BER Building Confidence index, a composite index gauging sentiment in the entire building value chain, plunged by 16 points in 1Q24 to reach 27 points. This represents the lowest level since 1Q21 when the country was under Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. The souring sentiment in 1Q24 follows two quarters of confidence gains, which aroused hopes that a sustained uptrend may be on the cards for the building sector.


 

A sideways movement in house prices, in line with expectations


The FNB House Price Index growth averaged 0.7% y/y in February, slightly lower than the 0.9% in January (revised from 0.6%). These low levels of house price appreciation should persist in the near term, amid still elevated living and borrowing costs, as well as heightened political uncertainty, both domestically and internationally.


 

Economics Weekly 8 March 2024


Following our analysis of the latest GDP data release, we now turn our attention to gross fixed capital formation (fixed investment), a vital component of the GDP identity, to evaluate its trajectory. This assessment is pivotal given current conditions, including subdued business confidence and a low employment-to-population ratio.


 

Economics Weekly 1 March 2024


Now that the 2024 Budget has been tabled, reflecting a more stable budget deficit and debt trajectory than feared, we think it is important to contextualise the budget within a global setting.


 

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