By Thanda Sithole
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), revealed a decline in employment during 2Q24 by 92 416 q/q, completely reversing the 21 555 jobs gained in 1Q24. Unemployment increased by 157 936 q/q, bringing the total number of unemployed individuals to 8 383 824.
Meanwhile, the total labour force grew by 65 520. This growth was slower than the rise in unemployment, resulting in an increase in the unemployment rate from 32.9% in the previous quarter, to 33.5%. The quarterly increase in unemployment was primarily driven by a rise in those losing their jobs and those classified under the "other" categories. In contrast, new entrants and re-entrants to the labour market declined by 3 167 and 31 035, respectively.
While seasonal variations may obscure the underlying movements in the data, year-on-year comparisons provide clearer insights into labour market developments. Compared to 2Q23, employment increased by 306 140, reflecting a 2.6% year-to-date (YTD) growth from January to June compared to the same period last year.
Key sectorial figures:
Net job losses were recorded in five out of ten sectors as follows:
Net job gains were recorded in the following sectors:
Outlook
The subdued labour market underscores the challenges posed by weak economic activity. The economy remains hampered by structural constraints, with cyclical demand lagging due to significantly constrained consumers. While economic growth is essential for employment gains, our projections indicate that growth will remain just below 2% over the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, modest net employment gains are anticipated, driven by improving business sentiment and growth.
However, to make meaningful progress toward the 2023 National Development Plan targets, robust and sustainable economic growth of around 5% will be necessary.
